Trend 1 now looks like intermediate top has been in we will go through ABC correction which may last months. Strong support at 1000 area, if that is given back it will be miserable for gold bugs. I remain basic long term longs in my portforlio for about 25% with cutting to 15% if a reflex rally take place in next week or so.
Trend 2, intermediate trend remain intact as $GKX holding 20 week MA. strong support just 3 points below. I am not surprised it will stage another potential huge rally in spring, which is a few weeks away.
Trend 3, Energy price is resilient so far like trend 2 but have yet proven any relative strength. Energy's strong season is upcoming so it is worthy to hold DBC as 2-3 just pull back so hard but not violate intermediate ascending trend line.
Trend 4, long bonds showing some strength near the support. the 5 wave decline from beginning of last year may come into an long pause while reflation trade fade away one by one.
Trend 5 is interesting right now. China is leading the weakness as ^HSI puts an big rounding top and ^SSEC 's sequential lower high. 1398 and 3988 just complete multi month head shoulders and breach the neckline. But so far it does not look like a crash and if an intermediate higher low is in a reflation cycle will extend. so I will keep eyes on these piggies.
Trend 6 I think significant top has been made. with some trends may take years to unfold I would like to take position in higher lows.
trend 7 the biotech stocks may be the trade of the year I would keep close watch to take position on etfs.
Trend 8 is part of reflation trade.
Trend 9 banks may get hit very hard as administration take a lip service to fight TBTF. But, as long as FED is in its power and running back door support, they will keep robbing people to death. I will look for shorting them in short term but swing to long once an low is put in.
Trend 10 is neutral to negative.
Trend 11 so far not making too much progress.
Trend 12, the debt deflation will move into sight again once these juice are not going in. The consumer sector in retailer and commercial real estate had a spectacular runs in last year, now it starts to break down. It will be the most ludicrous trade to play downside.
So far we have reduced position to 1/3 long most in precious metals. I am looking for a reflex rally as dollar test 200 day MA and pull back. I will cut more position in trend 1 and 2 and adding short position and anticipating down trend established for several months. I will swing short and going net short in next a few days.
